Fuel prices. We saw quite a jump in fuel prices into mid-summer. Our average fuel price topped $5 per gallon for 100LL and Jet-A. Things have settled down, but don't expect to see much more of a drop. Oil prices will stabilize a bit and this will help, but inflation is a threat and $60 per barrel for oil will be the new norm.

I think new aircraft sales will stabilize in 2007. Sales of used aircraft should continue to be split into two groups. Mid 1990s and newer models will continue to see good demand. Older models, unless at bargain prices, will be "how many do you want and is tomorrow OK for delivery?" This will be partly due to avionics outfitting (RVSM, 8.33 radios, etc), partly due to more fuel efficient engines on newer models, and partly due to the costs of maintaining older aircraft.

One more VLJ? My bet is that we will see one more entry into the very crowded VLJ market. I don't think we'll see much in the way of VLJ deliveries until later in 2007, but they are beginning.

I'd also look for one new mid-size and one more new large business jet entry for 2007. I don't expect much happening on the turboprop and helicopter side, though.

Overall, I'd expect 2007 to be an "OK" year for aviation. Not like 2006. Things should begin to cool off and those who have not yet planned for a rainy day better begin. If you are considering expanding or replacing aircraft, continue with your plans but do your homework.